Wind shifts. They are the bane and the reward when you are boat racing. If you are on the wrong side of a wind shift, you are cursing the weather gods. If you are on the good side of a wind shift you are patting yourself on the back as being a superior tactician.
The one thing that you can pretty much guarantee is that during a race there will be wind shifts, and your success or failure to read and adapt to them will determine your overall outcome. Yes, there are lot of other factors in play, such as your placement with other boats, but there is no other single factor that can make such a huge difference in your results.
Now the one thing that a lot of us do is to hang on to a gain for too long, and then find that a shift has come and the gain that you had has now turned into a loss. I suppose it is only human nature to try to play the gain for as long as possible, but that can quite often leave you holding a losing hand. The other mistake that can easily be made is hoping that an adverse shift will come back and give you a gain.
The idea is to bank your gains when you can and then go looking for another one. Obviously you need to temper this with observations about what is happening around you, but by banking your gain you have it locked up. A good example of this is when you are riding a left shift on starboard tack. The boats that are inside of you will be slowly falling behind you and you will find that there will come a point that boats that you couldn’t clear if you tacked are now clearable. The bad part of this is that boats on the other tack are being lifted. By tacking you are banking that gain and clearing those boats. Not only that you are now on the favored tack and you will be lifted inside the boats that are downwind of you on the new tack. The moment the left shift ends though, all of these gains stop, so the trick is to bank when you can. The moment you can clear the boats you are gaining on – go for it, and then you will still have some more of the shift to get gains on the boats on the port tack
In boat racing, it is quite common to get what is known as an oscillating breeze, where it will shift to the right for a while, and then shift back to the left, and this happens on a regular basis, so 5 minutes in one direction and then 5 minutes in another. If you are well enough prepared and have been out on the race course before the start checking out the shifts, then you can keep taking advantage of the shift during the race.
This is equally true of life off the water, where the tendency is to get greedy when there is an advantageous business situation. Always keep a weather eye out so that you have an exit plan that will allow you to bank your gains when you can. Small gains are great and much better than boom and bust.